Market Monitor

The events currently unfolding in Ukraine have sent shockwaves through global markets. The crisis comes at a moment when food markets are already struggling with soaring prices and the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. While AMIS supply and demand forecasts are little changed compared to February expectations, conditions are evolving rapidly. The AMIS Secretariat will continue monitoring developments closely and work with its partners to help minimize any adverse effects on global food markets.

• Wheat 2021 production still seen close to the previous season's record as downward revisions for production in the EU, Iraq, and Paraguay are balanced by a further upward revision for Australia's output.
• Utilization in 2021/22 set to rise by 1.5 percent from 2020/21 despite a downward adjustment this month largely reflecting lower utilization in India on account of higher exports.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) forecast at a record and lifted this month on greater than anticipated demand from Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia, and higher than expected sales from Australia and India.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) now forecast slightly above opening levels after an upward revision this month mostly in the EU on account of a revision of historical production figures and lower expected exports.

• Maize production in 2021 scaled up on higher expect output in India and the EU, and still headed for a record level, 3.7 percent above last season.
• Utilization in 2021/22 raised marginally m/m and forecast to rise by 2.6 percent from 2020/21, driven largely by greater feed and industrial use.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) still forecast to fall below the 2020/21 level, by 1.7 percent, despite an upward adjustment this month underpinned by both higher imports and exports by the EU.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) lifted on higher estimates for the EU and India stemming from production revisions, further boosting the expected rise in global stocks above opening levels to 3.3 percent.

• Rice production in 2021 upgraded and now seen expanding by 0.7 percent y/y. Upward revisions since February chiefly concerned India and, to a lesser extent, Madagascar, which overshadowed a reduction namely for the United Republic of Tanzania.
• Utilization in 2021/22 still seen reaching an all-time high, primarily on expanding food uses, but also on greater use of rice for animal feed.
• Trade in 2022 little changed m/m, with greater imports by African and Near East Asian buyers seen spearheading a 3.8 percent annual increase in global flows.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) raised largely on upward revisions to Indian reserves. As a result, global inventories are now expected to exceed their record opening levels by 0.9 percent, while the major exporters' stocks expand by 5.4 percent y/y.

• Soybean 2021/22 production revised down markedly on lower forecasts for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay due to prolonged unfavourable weather conditions. Global production is now seen contracting by 3.6 percent from last season's record level.
• Utilization in 2021/22 trimmed, mainly reflecting expectations of lower domestic crush in Argentina and Brazil (on reduced domestic supplies), as well as in China (tied to subdued feed demand).
• Trade in 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) revised down on smaller import forecasts for China and Argentina, while shipments were downgraded for major South American exporters.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) lowered further to the lowest level since 2013/14, broadly reflecting lower forecasts for Argentina, Brazil and China.